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Monday marked the third year since Russia invaded Ukraine. Energized by President Trump’s approach to bringing the conflict to a halt, half a dozen nations find themselves discussing various aspects of a comprehensive armistice agreement that would see Ukraine denied NATO membership, Europe take a greater role in defending the country, and billions in undeveloped critical mineral rights signed over to the US in compensation for previously furnished security assistance.
The first aspect of that agreement, that Ukraine be kept out of NATO, was stipulated by Trump’s National Security Advisor Michael Waltz.
“I do not see the United States having Ukraine enter into NATO and then having United States troops essentially obligated, immediately, in terms of Article Five, or coming to have US troops coming directly in for the defense of Ukraine,” Waltz said during an interview with Fox News.
Instead, Trump’s Defense Security Pete Hegseth has stipulated that Europe must take the lead in furnishing lethal and significant military aid to Ukraine, including a force of European and non-European peacekeepers who would not be protected by NATO’s Article 5, which states that an attack against one NATO member’s forces triggers the mutual defense of all NATO members
Though French leader Emanual Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer have offered to take the lead on limited peacekeeping deployments to Ukraine, Turkiye’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan expressed Ankara’s willingness to “take any step that could contribute to peace,” during a recent visit from Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, including offering Ukraine a security guarantee, according to Middle East Eye.
“We are ready to provide all kinds of support for the establishment of peace through dialogue,” Fidan told reporters at a press conference.
President Trump was recently pushed on the question of peacekeepers, which some senior Russian officials have denied as an acceptable solution.
“Yeah, he will accept that,” Trump told reporters alongside Macron in the Oval Office, referring to Mr. Putin. “I’ve asked him that question. Look, if we do this deal, he’s not looking for more war. He doesn’t mind. But I’ve specifically asked him that question. He has no problem with it”.
Moscow, for its part, seems to be heavily involved in the talks at all levels. Statements made suggest that apart from peacekeepers and mineral rights agreements, the negotiations were framed by the Istanbul Protocol Agreement Framework, a draft agreement to end the war which had been nearly agreed upon by all parties in April of 2022 in Istanbul, but which was ultimately rejected by Kyiv at the urging of Washington and London.
“There were very, very what I’ll call cogent and substantive negotiations framed in something that’s called the Istanbul Protocol Agreement,” another member of Trump’s foreign policy team, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, told CNN. “We came very, very close to signing something, and I think we’ll be using that framework as a guidepost to get a peace deal done between Ukraine and Russia, and I think that will be an amazing day”.
Minerals, China, and future US-Russia relations
President Trump has said Ukraine should give the United States $500 billion in critical raw materials as payback for aid which Kyiv has already received from the previous Biden Administration. Along with substantial proven lithium reserves, Ukraine is also believed to contain large amounts of uranium, zirconium, apatite, and other rare minerals.
“Ukrainian and US teams are in the final stages of negotiations regarding the minerals agreement. The negotiations have been very constructive, with nearly all key details finalized,” Deputy Ukrainian Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna wrote on X. “We hope both US and [Ukrain] leaders might sign and endorse it in Washington (at) the soonest to showcase our commitment for decades to come”.
Trump also gave an update on what he called the Critical Minerals and Rare Earths Deal, on his Truth Social account.
“Everyone expressed their goal of seeing the war end, and I emphasized the importance of the vital ‘Critical Minerals and Rare-Earths Deal’ between the United States and Ukraine, which we hope will be signed very soon!”
In the same post, Trump hinted at some kind of post-war economic agreement between the United States and Russia, potentially linked to sanctions relief; something Secretary of State Marco Rubio has already suggested.
“I am in serious discussions with President Vladimir Putin of Russia concerning the ending of the War, and also major Economic Development transactions which will take place between the United States and Russia,” Trump wrote. “Talks are proceeding very well!”
Also on Monday, President Xi Jinping called Putin in a conversation about a variety of non-military fields of cooperation, though Xi made certain to add his approval for the commitment to dialogue his ally was displaying in participating in talks with the US.
“China is pleased to see that Russia and relevant parties have made positive efforts to resolve the crisis,” President Xi said according to CCTV. The Kremlin later added in a statement that Xi and China offered to “help” the dialogue.
“Vladimir Putin informed the Chinese president about recent Russian-American contacts. The Chinese side expressed support for the ongoing dialogue between Russia and the United States and its willingness to help find a peaceful resolution to the Ukrainian conflict,” the statement said. WaL
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PICTURED ABOVE: Trump meeting Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Emanual Macron in Paris, February 2025 PC: Office of the President of Ukraine
