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Not a month ago, Wal reported that Trump had dismantled USAID, the $42 billion soft-power arm of the CIA and Pentagon, and followed that up by suggesting the US military budget could be halved from its $1 trillion or more of current value.
“We’re going to spend a lot less money,” the president said to reporters on February 13th in advance of a summit with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
“When we straighten it all out, then I want one of the first meetings I have [to be] with President Xi of China, President Putin of Russia. And I want to say, let’s cut our military budget in half,” Trump said in full. “We’re going to have them spend a lot less money. We’re going to spend a lot less money. And I know they’re going to do it”.
Two weeks later, the President posted on X that in “One Big Beautiful Bill” he would like to see $170 billion in increased border security and anti-immigration measures, coupled with a $100 billion (House proposal) to $150 billion (Senate proposal) increase in the Pentagon’s budget, and tax cuts worth $4.5 trillion over 10 years.
This would add $3 trillion to the deficit, and necessitate raising the debt ceiling by $4 trillion. Despite being the proverbial circus, the continual raising of the debt ceiling has allowed the government to reach more than 120% debt to GDP levels, while gradually pushing interest payments on the debt to over $1 trillion per year.
As Bloomberg reported, the ultimate, comprehensive federal budget under debate in the House and Senate would see these spending increases be paired with significant spending cuts of $2 trillion, which would reduce the budget deficit to just the one billionth column at current levels.
However, that bill is likely to require months of negotiations. House Speaker Mike Johnson said that the goal of House Republicans, who enjoy a slim majority, is to deliver “President Trump’s FULL agenda – not just a small part of it”.
Endorsed by the president, the bill would not see any reduction in the military budget, much less a reduction by half.
If the only fiscal accomplishment President Trump is able to cement in his second term were the dismantling and elimination of USAID, it would mark a significant triumph over his predecessors (himself included). USAID was notorious for undermining populations and regimes in countries around the world, breeding hostility and cynicism towards America and her leaders, and its end will be a boon for international development and relations.
However, that he hasn’t been able to at least engineer a return to the military spending of pre-Ukraine war levels, since the war seems soon to conclude, calls into question whether he has the political capital to achieve much more than his executive orders have already done. As Congress begins to try and get minority Democrats on board various proposals, the ra-ra-ra of early Trump 2.0. seems at risk of being drowned out by the din of business-as-usual haggling, growth plans, and lobbying that has typified Capitol Hill in the post-World War Two era. WaL
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PICTURED ABOVE: Mike Johson (R – LO) before he became Speaker of the House. PC: Gage Skidmore CC BY-2.0
