1/20 End of the Empire: The New Russia

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End of the Empire is a once-monthly feature on all news relating to the transition from the unipolar world of the US Empire to a multipolar world.

On January 17th, Russia and Iran signed a mutual cooperation treaty that includes provisions for Western sanctions, security in the Caspian Sea region, nuclear technology, and other issues.

Described by Al Jazeera as a treaty that needed years of negotiations, it’s the broadest agreement made between the two countries since 2001.

The treaty marks the third such effort by Moscow to improve relations with neighboring countries under the boot of American sanctions. Multiple visits by Chinese and Russian officials including presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin throughout the last two years have seen the relations between the two countries arguably reach the highest level since the end of the Cold War.

Additionally, last autumn Moscow signed a security and military cooperation treaty with North Korea that offered new markets for North Korean military equipment, and even saw North Korean brigades clash with Ukrainian interlopers in Kursk.

Now, Russia has welcomed its Caspian Sea neighbor Iran into this growing coalition of countering Washington’s “global hegemony”.

“The treaty … is constructive in nature and is aimed at strengthening the capabilities of Russia, Iran, and our friends in various parts of the world,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Tuesday.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the two countries were entering a new chapter in relations, especially in trade.

What’s in the treaty?

Having allegedly seen the treaty, Iranian news outlet Tehran Times writes that it is not a mutual defense pact, and, to the contrary, states that parties to it will use the United Nations Charter as a basis for security challenges. Other than that, the simple provision that parties will not provide military material or geographical space to states that aggress upon other treaty partners is all that it says regarding military cooperation.

The Times details that both countries will work to create independent finance and payment systems that exclude the US and EU so as to avoid and ameliorate the deleterious effects of Western sanctions. At a press conference following the signing ceremony, Putin said that 99.5% of bilateral trade is settled in either rials or rubles.

Additionally, clause 4 section 19 of the treaty states that neither party will disseminate any information that could result in the intensification of Western sanctions. Russia has relied on so-called “shadow fleets” of unmarked shipping to help circumvent the restrictions enforced by sanctions. Key to their success has been states acting as accomplices and allowing these shadow fleets to change their nationality upon registration or loading and offloading without their international transponders activated.

Article 23 states that “the parties will develop long-term and mutually beneficial relations to implement joint projects for the peaceful use of nuclear energy, including the construction of nuclear power facilities”.

Signed just days before Donald Trump assumes the US presidency for a second term, it’s a telling sign that any attempt he should make to replicate the “maximum pressure” campaign from his first term—to try and throttle the Iranian regime to the negotiating table on a new nuclear deal—stands to be far less effective.

Making up a substantial part of the coastline of the oil-rich Caspian Sea, the treaty also outlines a new security posture for the region.

“The parties will collaborate to maintain the Caspian Sea as a region of peace, good neighborliness, and friendship, based on the principle of excluding military forces not belonging to the coastal states, ensuring security and stability in the area,” the Times wrote.

The treaty is set to extend across the next 20 years. WaL